Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lille host Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 on Saturday, October 17, with kickoff at 2:45 p.m. ET. Their recent results offer contrasting talking points: a 1-0 home win against Le Havre on October 10, while a 5-1 home win against Angers on October 10.
The match is at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. Goalorithm’s probabilities are estimates. The model gives Lille 51.2%, a draw 24.7% and Stade Brestois 29 24.1%, setting out a contest with a clear range of possible outcomes rather than a settled script.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Lille win. Its ordering is a Lille win (51.2%), then a draw (24.7%), then a Stade Brestois 29 win (24.1%). The model expects over 2.5 goals at 57.3% and under 2.5 goals at 42.7%; it gives both teams scoring 58.8%, with at least one side failing to score at 41.2%.
Expected goals are 1.8 for Lille and 1.3 for Stade Brestois 29. The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.9%) and 1-0 (8.3%). The model’s projections make the attacking output of both sides relevant to the outcome, while its scorelines range from a draw to wins for Lille. These are forecasts, not guarantees of how the match will unfold.
Form and standings
Lille’s recent sequence is WLWWD, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 7 goals scored and 4 conceded. Their latest outing was a 1-0 home win against Le Havre on October 10. The sequence includes wins, a draw and a defeat, giving the match a recent-form backdrop that is not simply a run of identical results.