Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Osasuna host Racing Santander in La Liga on Sunday, October 18 at 8:00 a.m. ET. Both have 8 points from 8 games, and Racing Santander sit above Osasuna on the same points. The model's likeliest result is an Osasuna win, while its goals lean is over 2.5 goals.
What the model expects
The model gives Osasuna 45.4%, a draw 25.3% and Racing Santander 29.3%; these probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals figures are Osasuna 2.3 and Racing Santander 0.9, pointing to a stronger projected return for the hosts. The most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10.4%), 1-1 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
The model has over 2.5 goals at 61% and under 2.5 goals at 39% in its goals outlook. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 53.3%, while the figure for at least one side failing to score is 46.7%. The model's view of the match is therefore compatible with goals from both sides, though its leading scoreline has one team shut out. The model gives an Osasuna win 45.4%, below the bookmakers' 47.6%.
Form and standings
Osasuna have 1 draw and 4 defeats across their last 5 games. 5 goals scored and 17 conceded captures the scale of the task facing them after a run of results that includes a 5-2 away defeat to Real Betis on October 11. Their sequence, with the most recent result first, is LDLLL, and they are without a win in their last 5.
Racing Santander have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5, with 8 goals scored and 18 conceded. Their most recent-first sequence is DLLWL; their latest outing was a 2-2 home draw with Valencia on October 11. They are without a win in their last 3. Osasuna are 16th in Primera División with 8 points from 8 games, while Racing Santander are 15th in Primera División with 8 points from 8 games. Racing Santander sit above Osasuna on the same points.