Published October 24, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Tampa Bay Rays in MLB on Wednesday, October 28, with first pitch at 8:00 p.m. ET. Both clubs have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game. Goalorithm’s model makes the Milwaukee Brewers likelier to win, but the estimates are not certainties.
The matchup brings together two teams coming off completed regular seasons and a recent meeting between these same clubs. That meeting went to the Milwaukee Brewers; the model also gives the Tampa Bay Rays a chance to win, while identifying a Milwaukee Brewers win as its likelier result.
What the model expects
The model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 45.8% chance to win and the Milwaukee Brewers a 54.2% chance. Its likelier result is a Milwaukee Brewers win.
The expected scoring is 4.2 for the Tampa Bay Rays and 4.5 for the Milwaukee Brewers, with 8.7 in all. The model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 29.2% chance and the Milwaukee Brewers a 36.3% chance to win by two runs or more.
Form and standings
The Tampa Bay Rays finished the regular season 98-64, with a +86 run differential after 736 runs scored and 650 allowed. The Milwaukee Brewers finished 103-59, with a +214 run differential after 832 runs scored and 618 allowed. The Milwaukee Brewers have the better record.
The latest head-to-head result was Milwaukee Brewers 3-2 on October 23. That recent meeting gives the clubs a direct point of reference ahead of this postseason game. The Tampa Bay Rays will be looking to turn their regular-season campaign into a win here; the Milwaukee Brewers arrive with the model’s preference on their side.