Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Tampa Bay Rays in MLB on Monday, October 26, with first pitch at 8:00 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. Both clubs have completed the regular season, and this is a postseason game. Goalorithm’s model leans toward the Milwaukee Brewers, while its expected scoring puts the matchup close on the scoreboard.
What the model expects
The model’s estimates are not certainties. It gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 45.8% chance to win and the Milwaukee Brewers a 54.2% chance, with the model’s likelier result a Milwaukee Brewers win.
The projected scoring is 4.2 runs for the Tampa Bay Rays and 4.5 for the Milwaukee Brewers, or 8.7 in all. For a win by two runs or more, the model gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 29.2% chance and the Milwaukee Brewers a 36.3% chance. Those are separate parts of the projection: the overall win probabilities address the game result, while the margin probabilities address a win by at least that margin.
Form and standings
The Tampa Bay Rays finished the regular season 98-64 overall, with a run differential of +86; they scored 736 runs and 650 allowed. The Milwaukee Brewers finished 103-59, with a run differential of +214; they scored 832 runs and 618 allowed. The Milwaukee Brewers have the better record.
The bullpen figures add another season-long point of comparison. The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen’s ERA was 3.99, while the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen’s was 3.40. The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has the lower ERA. These records and bullpen figures frame the matchup beyond the model’s expected scoring, without changing the fact that the game itself is a postseason contest between the two clubs.