Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Malaga host Real Sociedad in La Liga on Sunday, October 18 at 12:30 p.m. ET. Malaga are without a win in their last 5, while Real Sociedad arrive on 2 wins in a row; the model's likeliest result is a Real Sociedad win.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Real Sociedad win (45.3%), then a draw (27.5%), then a Malaga win (27.2%). These probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals projection is Malaga 1.4 and Real Sociedad 1.4.
For the goals market, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 52.2% and under 2.5 goals at 47.8%. It assigns 55.9% to both teams scoring, and 44.1% to at least one side failing to score. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 (13.1%), followed by 0-0 (8.9%) and 1-2 (8%). The leading exact score is level, while the model's likeliest result is an away win.
Form and standings
Malaga have DLLDD across their latest 5 games, a record of 3 draws and 2 defeats. They have 3 goals scored and 6 conceded over that spell. Their latest outing was a 1-1 home draw with Espanyol on October 9; they are now without a win in their last 5.
Real Sociedad have WWLWD, comprising 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 9 goals scored and 9 conceded across their latest 5 games. Their most recent match was a 3-2 home win against Deportivo La Coruna on October 11, and they arrive after 2 wins in a row. In the table, Real Sociedad sit above Malaga: Malaga are 20th in Primera División with 4 points from 8 games, while Real Sociedad are 6th in Primera División with 13 points from 8 games. The recent records and table positions set out the context for a meeting between sides whose form has taken different paths.