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Preview · Ligue 1

Research workspace

Lyon vs Nice Prediction & Preview (October 18)

Lyon vs Nice in Ligue 1, Sunday, October 18. Goalorithm's model makes Lyon win the most likely result at 58%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

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Home / News / Soccer / Preview

Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Preview

Lyon host Nice in Ligue 1 on Sunday, October 18 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Lyon win, with its forecast centring on the expected-goals figures set out below.

The fixture brings together sides with different positions in the table. Lyon arrive after a 2-1 away defeat to Lens on October 9; Nice most recently recorded a 2-1 home win against Strasbourg on October 11. The model’s estimates point to Lyon as the likeliest winner, while its goal projections suggest that Nice could have a difficult task finding the net.

What the model expects

The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Lyon win (57.8%), then a draw (21.9%), then a Nice win (20.4%). Its lean is Lyon to win, and the expected-goals figures are Lyon 2.2 and Nice 0.3.

For the total-goals market, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 47.1% and under 2.5 goals at 52.9%. It puts both teams scoring at 25.3%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 74.7%. Those projections make a blank for one team a central possibility, rather than a forecast of a goalless draw.

The model’s likeliest scorelines are 2-0 (18.4%), 1-0 (17.2%) and 3-0 (13.5%). Each has Lyon ahead and Nice without a goal. Together, the score forecasts give a clear picture of the model’s expected direction, while remaining possible outcomes rather than certainties.

Form and standings

More soccer news

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SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction & Preview (October 17)

Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Saturday, October 17. Goalorithm's model makes Paris Saint Germain win the most likely result at 63%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Sat, Oct 17 · 11:15 AM ET

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Estac Troyes vs Lens Prediction & Preview (October 17)

Estac Troyes vs Lens in Ligue 1, Saturday, October 17. Goalorithm's model makes Lens win the most likely result at 52%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Sat, Oct 17 · 2:45 PM ET

Week
Predictions
My Tracker

Lyon’s sequence is LWDWD. Across that run, they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 4 conceded; their latest result was a 2-1 away defeat to Lens on October 9.

Nice’s sequence is WWLDL, comprising 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats and 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-1 home win against Strasbourg on October 11, and they come into the fixture on 2 wins in a row.

In the table, Lyon sit above Nice. Lyon are 4th in Ligue 1 with 11 points from 6 games, while Nice are 9th in Ligue 1 with 8 points from 6 games. Those standings set the scene for the fixture, while the model’s match outlook is expressed in its probabilities and expected-goals projections.

Team news

Lyon’s reported absentees and doubts are C. Tolisso (doubtful, injury), N. Tagliafico (knee injury), M. Ouedraogo (knee injury), L. Openda (leg injury), N. Kamara (inactive) and R. Himbert (inactive). Line-ups are not announced yet.

For Nice, the reported absentees and doubts are D. Coulibaly (doubtful, injury), M. Sanson (knee injury), A. Mendy (knee injury), M. Bombito (leg injury), L. Abergel (knee injury) and A. Abdi (surgery). The final selections remain unresolved with line-ups not yet announced.

Head to head

Across the last 6 meetings, Lyon won 4, Nice won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent meeting was Lyon 2-0 Nice (February 2026). That gives the fixture a direct point of reference, while the current forecast remains the model’s assessment of this meeting.

What to watch

The question for Lyon is whether they can turn the projected attacking output into goals; for Nice, the challenge in the model’s forecast is to produce a response of their own. The score predictions all have Lyon scoring without conceding, and the both-teams-to-score estimate makes the possibility of a clean sheet a feature to follow.

Nice bring 2 wins in a row into the fixture. The model’s projected gap in expected goals gives the match a clear statistical shape, but the outcome will be settled by what happens on the pitch.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Ligue 1

Lyon vs Nice

Sun, Oct 18 · 2:45 PM ET · Groupama Stadium, Lyon

Goalorithm's model

Lyon
57.8%
Draw
21.9%
Nice
20.4%
Over 2.5 goals
47.1%
Both teams score
25.3%

Likeliest scores

  • 2–0 18.4%
  • 1–0 17.2%
  • 3–0 13.5%

Bookmakers, margin removed

Lyon 57.1% · Draw 22.9% · Nice 20.1%

Open the Match Center

SoccerPreview· Ligue 1

Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction & Preview (October 17)

Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Saturday, October 17. Goalorithm's model makes Lille win the most likely result at 51%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Sat, Oct 17 · 2:45 PM ET

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Angers vs Marseille Prediction & Preview (October 18)

Angers vs Marseille in Ligue 1, Sunday, October 18. Goalorithm's model makes Marseille win the most likely result at 41%. Form, the table, team news, head-to-head and the likeliest scores.

Sun, Oct 18 · 9:00 AM ET