Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Levante host Athletic Club in La Liga on Wednesday, October 21, with kick-off at 2:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is an Athletic Club win, while the teams arrive with different recent records and reported team-news concerns. The match is at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are an Athletic Club win (46.3%), then a draw (27.2%), then a Levante win (26.5%). These probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals figures are Levante 2.1 and Athletic Club 2.2; the likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 (7.6%), 1-2 (6.9%) and 2-2 (6.9%).
The model’s goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 78%, with under 2.5 goals at 22%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 76.4%, while the probability of at least one side failing to score is 23.6%. Those figures point to a match in which goals from both sides are well represented in the forecast, alongside several closely grouped scoreline possibilities.
Form and standings
Levante have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats across 5 games, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their latest outing was a 3-3 home draw with Sevilla on October 12, and they are without a win in their last 4. The sequence, most recent first, is DLLDW. That run provides the recent-results context for a side currently 17th in Primera División with 6 points from 7 games.
Athletic Club have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat over 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their latest outing was a 0-0 home draw with Alaves on September 19, and they are unbeaten in their last 4. Their sequence, most recent first, is DDWWL. They are 10th in Primera División with 8 points from 6 games; in the table, Athletic Club sit above Levante. The teams therefore come into the fixture with distinct recent records, while the standings place them at different positions in Primera División.