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Match analysis · Ligue 1

Research workspace

Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse: Match Analysis & Model Review

Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse in Ligue 1, Friday, October 16: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Le Mans lost 0-3 to Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Friday, October 16, with a 3-0 win for Toulouse over Le Mans following a goalless first half. Toulouse scored immediately after the interval and added further goals in the 59th minute and 87th minute, while Le Mans finished without a goal.

Le Mans had more possession and a similar number of attempts, but Toulouse put more shots on target and recorded the higher expected-goals figure. The match ended with Toulouse holding a three-goal lead at 0-3.

How it unfolded

The sides went in level at 0-0. Jacen Russell-Rowe scored for Toulouse in the 46th minute, making it 0-1; Aron Dønnum then extended Toulouse's advantage in the 59th minute to 0-2.

Casper Tengstedt completed the scoring for Toulouse in the 87th minute, setting the final score at 0-3. Only Toulouse ever led. Le Mans recorded no goals, while Toulouse finished with three goals, for three goals in all.

The numbers

Possession was 53% for Le Mans and 47% for Toulouse. The shot count was 11 to 13, but the difference in shots on target was more pronounced: Le Mans had 1, compared with 5 for Toulouse. That accuracy gap accompanied the difference on the scoreboard.

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Expected goals came to 0.93 for Le Mans and 1.83 for Toulouse. The figures point to a greater volume of chance quality for Toulouse, while Le Mans' possession did not bring a comparable return in shots on target. Corners were level at 2 apiece. The saves count was 2 for Le Mans and 1 for Toulouse.

Standout performers

A. Dønnum was Toulouse's best-rated player, with a rating of 8.9 and 1 goal and 1 assist.

J. Vercruysse was Le Mans' best-rated player, with a rating of 6.7. That was the highest rating for Le Mans, though the side could not convert its possession and 11 attempts into a goal.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Le Mans a win probability of 32.3%, a draw 25.9%, and Toulouse a win probability of 41.7%. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Toulouse to win, with an outcome probability of 41.7%.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The result followed the model's pre-match selection, and Toulouse finished with three goals and the higher expected-goals total. Le Mans' greater possession did not alter the outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Ligue 1

Le Mans vs Toulouse

Fri, Oct 16 · 2:45 PM ET · MMArena

Full time

0–3

Half-time 0–0

  • 46'Jacen Russell-Rowe0–1
  • 59'Aron Dønnum0–2
  • 87'Casper Tengstedt0–3

The model before the game

Le Mans
32.3%
Draw
25.9%
Toulouse
41.7%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Le MansStatisticToulouse
2saves1
11shots13
2corners2
53%possession47%
0.93expected goals1.83
1shots on target5
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