Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Le Havre host Auxerre in Ligue 1 on Sunday, October 18, with kick-off at 11:15 a.m. ET. Both sides arrive after defeats, and the table places them close to the bottom: Auxerre sit above Le Havre.
The model's outlook points to a game with goals, while its most likely outcome is a Le Havre win. These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcome probabilities leave room for either side to win or for the match to be drawn.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Le Havre win (40.6%), then an Auxerre win (32.1%), then a draw (27.4%). Its expected-goals figures are 2 for Le Havre and 1.2 for Auxerre, and its lean is over 2.5 goals. The model gives over 2.5 goals at 61.2% and under 2.5 goals at 38.8%.
Both teams to score is assigned 59.5%, while 40.5% covers the chance that at least one side fails to score. The leading exact-score projections are 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-0 (8.2%).
Form and standings
Le Havre have LLDLD across their latest 5 games, a record of 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 away defeat to Lille on October 10, and they are on 2 defeats in a row.
Auxerre have LWWLL across their latest 5 games, with 2 wins and 3 defeats and 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their most recent match was a 4-1 away defeat to Rennes on October 11. The teams' table positions are 18th in Ligue 1 for Le Havre, on 2 points from 6 games, and 16th in Ligue 1 for Auxerre, on 6 points from 6 games.