Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Groningen host Ajax in Eredivisie on Sunday, October 18, with the model making Ajax the likeliest winner but also pointing towards a game with goals. Groningen arrive after a big away win, while Ajax’s latest match ended level; the sides are separated by a single point in the table.
What the model expects
The model gives Ajax 49.9%, Groningen 27.3% and the draw 22.8%. Its likeliest result is an Ajax win, though that is an estimate rather than a certainty. The expected-goals figures are Groningen 1.3 and Ajax 2.6, with the model’s leading scorelines 1-1, 1-2 and 1-3.
The model leans towards over 2.5 goals: it gives over 2.5 goals at 74.1%, against under 2.5 goals at 25.9%. Both teams to score is at 67.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 32.8%. Taken together, those numbers frame Ajax as the more likely winner while leaving room for Groningen to contribute to an open contest.
Form and standings
Groningen’s recent record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest result was a 5-1 away win against Excelsior on October 11, and they are on 2 wins in a row. Ajax have the same record across their recent matches, 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 14 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest outing was a 1-1 home draw with NEC Nijmegen on October 10, and they are unbeaten in their last 4.
Groningen sit 6th in Eredivisie with 14 points from 8 games; Ajax sit 5th in Eredivisie with 15 points from 8 games. Ajax sit above Groningen. The recent results give both sides signs of momentum: Groningen have followed their latest win with a current winning run, while Ajax have avoided defeat across their recent stretch. Neither side’s record in the listed sample separates them, so the model’s expectation of an Ajax edge rests more on its match forecast than on a difference in those records.