Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Getafe host Rayo Vallecano in La Liga on Monday, October 19, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s ordering is a Rayo Vallecano win (37.1%), then a Getafe win (31.9%), then a draw (31.1%), giving the fixture a close spread across the possible results. The teams have 8 points from 8 games and 8 points from 7 games respectively; Rayo Vallecano sit above Getafe on the same points.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s likeliest result is a Rayo Vallecano win, but its forecast also gives considerable scope to a Getafe win or a draw. Its expected-goals figures are 1.1 for Getafe and 1.4 for Rayo Vallecano, pointing to a projected scoring contribution from each side.
For the goals market, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 56.5%, against over 2.5 goals at 43.5%. It assigns 48.3% to both teams scoring and 51.7% to at least one side failing to score. The leading exact-score forecasts are 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (11.9%) and 0-1 (10.3%). Those scorelines include a draw, a goalless draw and a narrow Rayo Vallecano win.
Form and standings
Getafe’s recent sequence is LWLDD, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats across 5 games. They have 3 goals scored and 6 conceded; their latest result was a 3-0 away defeat to Barcelona on October 10. That stretch has produced wins, draws and defeats, with the goals record showing a modest return in front of goal.