Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Genoa host Fiorentina in Serie A on Saturday, October 10 at 9:00 a.m. ET, with both sides starting from low positions in the table. The model leans towards the visitors, while the recent records show difficult spells for each team. The estimates point to a game with goals, though the likeliest exact score is level.
What the model expects
The model gives Genoa 29.4%, a draw 27.2% and Fiorentina 43.5%. Its likeliest result is a Fiorentina win. That is the clearest outcome in the forecast, but the draw and a home win also have substantial probabilities; the numbers do not rule either out. These probabilities are estimates, and the expected-goals figures are 1.8 for Genoa and 2 for Fiorentina.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 71.5% and under 2.5 goals at 28.4%, with both teams scoring at 71%; at least one side fails to score at 29%. Its listed exact scores are 1-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%) and 2-1 (6.8%). They span a draw and wins for either side, so the forecast does not settle on one exact scoreline.
Form and standings
Genoa are 19th in Serie A in the table with 1 point from 5 games. Their recent record is 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 10 conceded. They are without a win in their last 5, and most recently suffered a 2-1 away defeat to Parma on September 20. That sequence leaves them looking for a response, but the model still projects an attacking contribution from the hosts.