Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
FC Cincinnati host Columbus Crew in Major League Soccer on Sunday, October 18 at 5:00 p.m. ET, with the fixture set for TQL Stadium, Cincinnati. The model gives FC Cincinnati the narrowest of leads in its outcome forecast, while its goals outlook points toward a game with scoring at both ends.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates: the model gives FC Cincinnati 41.1%, a draw 23.3% and Columbus Crew 35.5%. Its likeliest result is an FC Cincinnati win. The model's stated lean is over 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76.2% and under 2.5 goals at 23.8% in its goals forecast. It gives both teams scoring 73.5%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 26.5%.
Expected goals are 2.4 for FC Cincinnati and 1.7 for Columbus Crew. The leading exact-score possibilities are 2-1 at 7.9%, 1-1 at 7.8% and 2-2 at 6.5%. Together, those scorelines include a win for FC Cincinnati and draws, but no win for Columbus Crew; the broader forecast also allows for goals from both teams.
Form and standings
FC Cincinnati’s recent sequence is LWLDD, listed most recent first. The record is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded; the latest result was a 3-2 home defeat to New England Revolution on October 14. That defeat came in a match with goals at both ends, consistent with the model’s expectation of an open contest, though the forecast remains its own view of this fixture.