Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
New York Red Bulls host Toronto FC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The model's outcome order is a New York Red Bulls win (46.8%), then a Toronto FC win (28.3%), then a draw (24.9%); the teams arrive with contrasting recent records and a recent meeting that ended level.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model's outcome order is a New York Red Bulls win (46.8%), then a Toronto FC win (28.3%), then a draw (24.9%). Its expected goals are 1.5 for New York Red Bulls and 1.4 for Toronto FC, pointing to closely matched scoring expectations rather than a forecast built around a large gap between the sides.
For total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 54% and under 2.5 goals at 46%. It gives both teams scoring 57.1%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 42.9%. These are separate views of the scoring picture: the forecast allows for goals from both teams, but also leaves room for one side to be shut out.
The likeliest exact score is 1-1 (12.7%), followed by 2-1 (8.4%) and 0-0 (8.2%). The scoreline estimates offer a spread of possibilities, with a level result at the top and a New York win among the other listed outcomes.
Form and standings
New York Red Bulls' most recent-first sequence is LWLWW. Across those games, the side recorded 3 wins and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. Its latest outing was a 2-1 away defeat to DC United on October 14. The sequence includes wins and defeats, and the latest match ended in a defeat away from home.