Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Chelsea host Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday, October 10, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET. Chelsea’s recent results have included wins and defeats, while Bournemouth arrive without a win in their current run; the model expects a Chelsea win to lead its outcome forecast.
What the model expects
The model’s estimates put the outcomes in this order: a Chelsea win (53.3%), then a Bournemouth win (23.6%), then a draw (23.1%). Its likeliest result is a Chelsea win. For goals, it expects over 2.5 goals at 77.2%, while under 2.5 goals at 22.8% is the alternative. It gives both teams a 75.1% chance of scoring, and gives at least one side failing to score 24.9%.
Expected goals are 2.3 for Chelsea and 1.9 for Bournemouth. The likeliest exact score is 2-1 (7.5%), followed by 1-1 (7.3%) and 2-2 (6.7%). The model’s stated lean is over 2.5 goals. Those figures point to a match in which goals from both sides are a prominent possibility, even though the forecast still places a Chelsea win first.
Form and standings
Chelsea’s last 5 results, listed from most recent first, are LDLWW: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their latest was a 3-0 away defeat to Brentford on September 18, and they are without a win in their last 3. The sequence includes a recent defeat, but also wins; the figures show a mixed spell rather than a run of consistent results.