Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction & Preview (October 18)

Celta Vigo host Alaves in La Liga on Sunday, October 18, with kick-off at 10:15 a.m. ET. The table has Alaves above Celta Vigo, while recent form points to contrasting runs for the sides.

The probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Celta Vigo win (43.1%), then a draw (29.3%), then an Alaves win (27.5%), making a Celta Vigo win the leading outcome in its forecast. The draw and an Alaves win remain part of the model's picture, rather than outcomes it rules out.

For goals, the model expects under 2.5 goals at 57.9%. It gives both teams to score 46.6%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 53.4%. Expected goals are 1.4 for Celta Vigo and 1 for Alaves. The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 at 13.8%, 0-0 at 12.4% and 1-0 at 11.3%. That set includes a level scoreline and a narrow home win, even as the model's outcome forecast puts the home win first.

Celta Vigo’s recent results read DWDDD, with 1 win and 4 draws and 7 goals scored and 2 conceded. Their latest match was a 0-0 away draw with Elche on October 11. The sequence has included draws, and the team remains unbeaten in their last 5. That recent record gives the home side a steady platform, though the model still allows for a draw as well as a win.

Alaves’ recent sequence is LDLLW, comprising 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. They most recently played a 2-1 home defeat to Atletico Madrid on October 10, and are without a win in their last 4. In the table, 7th in Primera División with 11 points from 8 games, Alaves sit above Celta Vigo, who are 9th in Primera División with 8 points from 8 games. The standings underline the visitors’ current position, while the recent run leaves them looking to turn results around. The two sides therefore come into the fixture with different immediate momentum, but the model’s forecast remains focused on the full range of outcomes rather than form alone.