Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Cambuur host AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie on Sunday, October 18, with kick-off at 8:30 a.m. ET. The model’s view is clear: an AZ Alkmaar win is the likeliest result, while its expected-goals figures point to a larger attacking contribution from AZ Alkmaar.
Cambuur arrive after a 1-0 away win against PEC Zwolle on October 11; AZ Alkmaar most recently suffered a 2-0 away defeat to Feyenoord on October 10. Those results set the immediate backdrop, but the model’s estimate of the fixture rests on the full set of outcome probabilities rather than either latest score alone.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Cambuur 16.7%, the draw 19.5% and AZ Alkmaar 63.8%; its ordering is an AZ Alkmaar win (63.8%), then a draw (19.5%), then a Cambuur win (16.7%). Its lean is AZ Alkmaar to win.
The expected-goals figures are Cambuur 1.1 and AZ Alkmaar 2.8. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 72.4% and under 2.5 goals at 27.6%, while its both-teams-to-score view is 61.5% for both scoring and 38.5% for at least one side failing to score. The likeliest scorelines are 1-2 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (8.2%).
For the headline outcome, the model gives an AZ Alkmaar win 63.8%, in line with the bookmakers' 64.4%. The model and bookmaker probabilities are close on that result, with the model’s figures already setting out its view of the draw and a Cambuur win as well.