Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The bookmakers' favourite won 12 of 32 matches.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Napoli were the bookmakers' 42% favourites and drew 1–1.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: PSV Eindhoven were the bookmakers' 43% favourites and lost 2–3.
Upset: Norwich were the bookmakers' 67% favourites and lost 3–4.
Upset: Como were the bookmakers' 64% favourites and lost 0–2.
Upset: Genoa were the bookmakers' 37% favourites and lost 1–2.
Upset: Stade Brestois 29 were the bookmakers' 42% favourites and lost 1–2.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Leeds were the bookmakers' 57% favourites and drew 0–0.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Real Madrid were the bookmakers' 47% favourites and lost 1–2.
Upset: Estrela were the bookmakers' 45% favourites and lost 0–2.
Upset: Vitória SC were the bookmakers' 67% favourites and drew 1–1.
Upset: NEC Nijmegen were the bookmakers' 45% favourites and drew 1–1.
Upset: Lille were the bookmakers' 44% favourites and lost 1–2.
Upset: Manchester United were the bookmakers' 47% favourites and drew 1–1.
Upset: FC Schalke 04 were the bookmakers' 50% favourites and drew 0–0.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Real Betis were the bookmakers' 48% favourites and drew 1–1.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Estoril were the bookmakers' 56% favourites and lost 1–2.
Upset: SC Braga were the bookmakers' 43% favourites and drew 0–0.
Upset: 1899 Hoffenheim were the bookmakers' 56% favourites and lost 1–3.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Benfica were the bookmakers' 40% favourites and lost 1–3.
Upset: Inter Miami were the bookmakers' 66% favourites and drew 2–2.
How each source has done, last 30 days
Soccer
Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 59% of 368, after saying 53%: too cautious · Model (ours): too few to say (6). Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
NFL/College
Bookmakers: their favourite won 66% of 243, after their prices said 68% · Model (ours): too few to say (2) · Default (home side): too few to say (2).
MLB
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: their favourite won 53% of 30, after their prices said 56%.
Basketball
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: too few to say (17).