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Research tools

Public formula / calculator 02

Model comparison calculator

Put a probability estimate beside a listed market price and inspect the distance between them.

Your inputs / transparent math

Input desk

Enter your data

Live calculation

Your own assessment of the outcome probability (0–100%).

Enter both values to open the comparison ledger. Nothing is stored or sent to the prediction model.

Formula ledger

Estimate versus market

01
Edge = your probability − implied probability
02
Expected ROI = probability × decimal price − 1
03
A positive difference describes the inputs. It does not prove the estimate is accurate.
This tool compares numbers you provide. It is not a prediction engine and does not use Goalorithm's proprietary model.
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