Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
VfB Stuttgart host Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, October 20 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model gives VfB Stuttgart its likeliest result, but the outcome probabilities leave a narrow gap between the sides. The match is at MHPArena, Stuttgart.
What the model expects
The model gives VfB Stuttgart a 39.6% chance of winning, against 23.7% for a draw and 36.7% for an Atletico Madrid win. Those probabilities are estimates. Its expected goals are 2.5 for VfB Stuttgart and 1 for Atletico Madrid, with a lean towards over 2.5 goals.
The model's goal figures are over 2.5 goals at 66.3% and under 2.5 goals at 33.7%; it gives both teams a 57.2% chance of scoring. The likeliest scorelines are 2-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-1 (7.9%).
The bookmakers' outcome order is an Atletico Madrid win (41.3%), then a VfB Stuttgart win (33.7%), then a draw (25.1%). The model gives a VfB Stuttgart win 39.6%, above the bookmakers' 33.7%.
Form and standings
Atletico Madrid arrive after a 2-0 home win against Manchester United on October 13. Across their recent games, their record is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their results, listed most recent first, are WLLDL.
VfB Stuttgart sit 4th in UEFA Champions League with 6 points from 2 games, while Atletico Madrid sit 15th in UEFA Champions League with 3 points from 2 games. VfB Stuttgart sit above Atletico Madrid.