Published October 31, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The UCF Knights visit the Kansas Jayhawks in college football on Saturday, November 7, with kickoff at 12:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives the Kansas Jayhawks a win probability of 65.8% and the UCF Knights a win probability of 34.2%.
The model’s likelier result is a Kansas Jayhawks win. Its probabilities are estimates, not certainties.
What the model expects
The model projects 30.1 points for the Kansas Jayhawks and 24.9 for the UCF Knights, with 55 points in all. Its projected margin is the Kansas Jayhawks by 5.2 points.
That forecast sets up a game in which the Kansas Jayhawks are projected to score more, while the UCF Knights arrive with a 4-4 season record.
Records and recent results
The Kansas Jayhawks are 3-4 overall this season, with 217 points scored and 168 allowed in 7 games. The UCF Knights are 4-4 overall, with 238 points scored and 202 allowed in 8 games. The UCF Knights have the better record.
The Kansas Jayhawks beat the Baylor Bears 25-24 at home on October 24, and before that lost 35-24 on the road to the Kansas State Wildcats on October 17 and lost 41-24 on the road to the Utah Utes on October 10. The UCF Knights lost 41-9 at home to the Baylor Bears on October 30, and before that beat the BYU Cougars 39-31 at home on October 24 and lost 42-28 on the road to the Oklahoma State Cowboys on October 10. Those recent results give both teams a mix of wins and losses to bring into Saturday’s meeting.