Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
San Jose Earthquakes host Nashville SC in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 17, with the model’s likeliest result a Nashville SC win. The fixture is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET at Avaya Stadium, San Jose. Both sides arrive with positive recent records: San Jose Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last 5, while Nashville SC have 4 wins in a row.
There is a clear model lean towards the visitors, but the probabilities still leave room for a draw or a home win. The standings place San Jose Earthquakes 4th in Western Conference with 47 points from 29 games, and Nashville SC 1st in Eastern Conference with 66 points from 29 games.
What the model expects
The model gives San Jose Earthquakes 28.7%, a draw 26.4% and Nashville SC 44.9%. These probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals figures are 1.1 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.2 for Nashville SC, with the projections pointing to a close scoring contribution from the sides.
The most likely score is 1-1 at 14.1%; the other leading scorelines are 0-0 at 12.7% and 0-1 at 10.2%. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 58.8% and over 2.5 goals at 41.2%. It gives both teams to score 46.9%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 53.1%; that latter outcome does not mean the match must finish goalless.
The model gives 44.9% to Nashville SC to win, while the bookmakers imply 45.3%. The score projections include a level result as well as a narrow away win, while the model’s outcome probabilities also allow for a San Jose victory.