Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
New England Revolution host Chicago Fire in Major League Soccer on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET, with the Eastern Conference positions making this a meeting between closely placed sides. The model names a New England Revolution win as its likeliest result, but its outcome probabilities leave a share for a draw or an away win.
The latest meeting was Chicago Fire 1-2 New England Revolution (September 2026). The teams’ most recent results were a 3-2 away win against FC Cincinnati on October 14 and a 3-1 home defeat to Philadelphia Union on October 14. Those results offer contrasting immediate backdrops to a fixture whose model forecast points to goals at both ends.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives New England Revolution 40%, a draw 25.2% and Chicago Fire 34.8%; its outcome order is a New England Revolution win (40%), then a Chicago Fire win (34.8%), then a draw (25.2%). Expected goals are 1.8 for New England Revolution and 1.3 for Chicago Fire.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 59.3% and under 2.5 goals at 40.7%. It gives both teams to score 60.4%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 39.6%. Its leading exact-score calls are 1-1 (11.5%), 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7%). The leading score is level, while the other listed scores have New England Revolution ahead. These are distinct possible scorelines, not a single prescribed path to the outcome forecast.