Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Inter host Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 21, with the fixture set for 3:00 p.m. ET. The model expects Inter to take the stronger share of the result probabilities, while the standings tell a different story: Shakhtar Donetsk sit above Inter.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is an Inter win, and its outcomes run an Inter win (71%), then a draw (15%), then a Shakhtar Donetsk win (14%). These probabilities are estimates. Its lean is Inter to win, with expected goals of 2.6 for Inter and 1.1 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 71.1% and under 2.5 goals at 28.9%, while its both-teams-to-score estimates are 61.8% for both scoring and 38.2% for at least one side failing to score. Its likeliest scorelines are 2-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (8.2%) and 3-1 (7.5%).
Form and standings
Inter arrive after a 4-3 home defeat to Club Brugge KV on October 13. Across their last 5 games, their form is LLLLW: 1 win and 4 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. That run leaves them on 4 defeats in a row.
In the competition table, Inter are 29th in UEFA Champions League with 0 points from 2 games, while Shakhtar Donetsk are 11th in UEFA Champions League with 4 points from 2 games. The model's expectation therefore sets up a contrast with the current table positions, where Shakhtar Donetsk sit above Inter.