Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Como host Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 21, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET. Both sides have 3 points from 2 games and Como sit above Manchester United on the same points, giving the meeting a close table context.
The model's outcome order puts a Como win first, followed by a Manchester United win and a draw. Its expected-goals figures point to a stronger attacking return for Como, while the likeliest scorelines all have Manchester United failing to score. These probabilities are estimates.
What the model expects
The model gives Como a win 41.1%, a draw 24.4% and a Manchester United win 34.5%. Its likeliest result is a Como win. The bookmakers' outcome order also puts a Como win first, followed by a Manchester United win and a draw; the model gives a Como win 41.1%, in line with the bookmakers' 41.4%.
The goals model gives over 2.5 goals at 44.9% and under 2.5 goals at 55.1%. It has both teams scoring at 33.6%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 66.4%; that category does not mean a goalless draw. Expected goals are Como 2 and Manchester United 0.5.
The likeliest exact scores are 1-0 at 16.5%, 2-0 at 15.8% and 3-0 at 10.3%. Each is a home win to nil, matching the model's expectation of a greater scoring contribution from Como. The forecast does not rule out another outcome: the draw and away-win probabilities remain part of its picture.