Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bayern München host Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, October 21, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome order is a Bayern München win (43.6%), then an Arsenal win (33.1%), then a draw (23.3%), while Arsenal sit above Bayern München after Bayern München collected 4 points from 2 games and Arsenal collected 6 points from 2 games.
The game is at Allianz Arena, Munich. Bayern München arrive unbeaten in their last 3, and Arsenal arrive with 2 wins in a row; their most recent results were a 3-3 away draw with Viking on October 13 and a 3-0 home win against Lille on October 13. The fixture brings together those contrasting recent records and a model forecast led by a Bayern München win.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Bayern München 43.6%, a draw 23.3% and Arsenal 33.1%; its likeliest result is a Bayern München win.
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 55.8%, against under 2.5 goals at 44.2%. The model gives both teams a chance of scoring at 35.4%, while its estimate for at least one side failing to score is 64.7%. Expected goals are 2.5 for Bayern München and 0.5 for Arsenal. The leading projected scores are 2-0 at 15.4%, 1-0 at 13.1% and 3-0 at 12.2%. Together, these figures set out a forecast with Bayern München leading the model’s result choices and a range of possible scorelines that all have Bayern München ahead.
The bookmakers’ outcome order is a Bayern München win (44.5%), then an Arsenal win (31.1%), then a draw (24.5%). The model gives Bayern München a 43.6% win probability, in line with the bookmakers’ 44.5%.