All 4 matches on Sun 18 Oct are priced by a blend of our model and the bookmakers. How each source has done
Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
Upset: Udinese were the bookmakers' 51% favourites and lost 0–3.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Juventus were the bookmakers' 60% favourites and lost 0–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
Scores updated 8:19 AM EDT
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Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 59% of 368 matches. It gave its favourite 53% on average: too cautious.
Model (ours): too few to say (6).
Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
Published cards: 135 of 173 came in (cards share legs; small sample).
Our soccer numbers are not validated as better than the bookmakers' yet.