Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The only match on Fri 9 Oct is priced by a blend of our model and the bookmakers.
Upset: Borussia Dortmund were the bookmakers' 71% favourites and drew 2–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Scores updated 4:59 PM EST
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Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 60% of 333 matches. It gave its favourite 53% on average: too cautious.
Model (ours): too few to say (4).
Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
Published cards: 119 of 157 came in (cards share legs; small sample).
Our soccer numbers are not validated as better than the bookmakers' yet.