Bankroll Management for Long-Term Growth

Even with a +5% edge, you'll experience losing streaks. A +5% edge means you lose ~45% of individual bets. Losing 8-10 bets in a row is normal variance, not a broken strategy. Bankroll management ensures you survive drawdowns.

Bets with 52% win rate (typical edge): - 3 losses in a row: 11% - 5 losses in a row: 3.3% - 8 losses in a row: 0.7% Bets with 55% win rate: - 5 losses in a row: 1.8% - 10 losses in a row: 0.03% Plan for worst-case scenarios.

Flat Staking: Bet same amount (e.g., $100) every bet - Pros: Simple, predictable, easier to track - Cons: Doesn't scale with bankroll growth Percentage Staking: Bet fixed % of current bankroll (e.g., 2%) - Pros: Automatically adjusts for growth/shrinkage - Cons: Larger bets after wins can feel uncomfortable Most professionals use a hybrid: fixed percentage with caps.

Risk of Ruin is the probability of losing your entire bankroll. With proper bankroll management (1-3% per bet), your risk of ruin is effectively zero—even with extreme losing streaks, you'd need hundreds of consecutive losses. Over-betting (5%+ per bet) dramatically increases risk of ruin.

Start: $1,000 Stake per bet: 2% = $20 If bankroll grows to $1,200 → stake = $24 If bankroll drops to $800 → stake = $16 If bankroll drops to $500 → stake = $10 (re-evaluate strategy) Never bet more than 3% of bankroll on any single event.