Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The bookmakers' favourite won 15 of 25 matches.
Upset: GO Ahead Eagles were the bookmakers' 48% favourites and lost 1–4.
Upset: Udinese were the bookmakers' 51% favourites and lost 0–3.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: AZ Alkmaar were the bookmakers' 64% favourites and drew 2–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Leeds were the bookmakers' 41% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Le Havre were the bookmakers' 41% favourites and lost 1–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Monaco were the bookmakers' 46% favourites and lost 0–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: NEC Nijmegen were the bookmakers' 55% favourites and drew 2–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Twente were the bookmakers' 70% favourites and lost 1–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Juventus were the bookmakers' 60% favourites and lost 0–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: FC Cincinnati were the bookmakers' 42% favourites and lost 0–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
How each source has done, last 30 days
Soccer
Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 59% of 372, after saying 53%: too cautious · Model (ours): too few to say (6) · Bookmakers or data provider: too few to say (1). Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
NFL/College
Bookmakers: their favourite won 66% of 240, after their prices said 68% · Model (ours): too few to say (2) · Default (home side): too few to say (2).
MLB
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: their favourite won 56% of 34, after their prices said 56%.
Basketball
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: too few to say (16).