Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The bookmakers' favourite won 8 of 17 matches.
Upset: Lens were the bookmakers' 37% favourites and lost 0–2.
Upset: Slavia Praha were the bookmakers' 50% favourites and lost 0–2.
Upset: Wolves were the bookmakers' 68% favourites and lost 1–3.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Burnley were the bookmakers' 58% favourites and drew 2–2.
Upset: Bristol City were the bookmakers' 45% favourites and lost 0–1.
Upset: Millwall were the bookmakers' 39% favourites and lost 0–1.
Upset: Wrexham were the bookmakers' 40% favourites and lost 1–2.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Inter were the bookmakers' 77% favourites and lost 3–4.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: Bayern München were the bookmakers' 86% favourites and drew 3–3.
How each source has done, last 30 days
Soccer
Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 59% of 372, after saying 53%: too cautious · Model (ours): too few to say (6) · Bookmakers or data provider: too few to say (1). Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
NFL/College
Bookmakers: their favourite won 66% of 240, after their prices said 68% · Model (ours): too few to say (2) · Default (home side): too few to say (2).
MLB
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: their favourite won 56% of 34, after their prices said 56%.
Basketball
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: too few to say (16).