Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The bookmakers' favourite won 8 of 18 matches.
Upset: Congo DR were the bookmakers' 52% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Mauritius were the bookmakers' 49% favourites and lost 2–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Ukraine were the bookmakers' 35% favourites and lost 1–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Northern Ireland were the bookmakers' 39% favourites and drew 0–0.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Poland were the bookmakers' 37% favourites and lost 0–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Montenegro were the bookmakers' 66% favourites and drew 0–0.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Cuba were the bookmakers' 58% favourites and drew 2–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Martinique were the bookmakers' 38% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Grenada were the bookmakers' 62% favourites and lost 1–4.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Honduras were the bookmakers' 46% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
How each source has done, last 30 days
Soccer
Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 59% of 371, after saying 53%: too cautious · Model (ours): too few to say (6). Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
NFL/College
Bookmakers: their favourite won 66% of 240, after their prices said 68% · Model (ours): too few to say (2) · Default (home side): too few to say (2).
MLB
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: their favourite won 56% of 32, after their prices said 56%.
Basketball
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: too few to say (16).